The Retail Advocate

Federal Issue—Healthcare

As you have heard in the news the Senate and the House of Representatives have each passed a HealthCare bill. Neil Trautwein, Vice President, Employee Benefits Policy Counsel, National Retail Federation, has been the NRF’s lead lobbyist on Health Care since the issue began and below is his latest update on the issue.

1. To Conference or Not to Conference—apparently the consensus view between the White House and the House and Senate majority leadership is that they will employ a range of options to informally conference among themselves (no Rs allowed) and perhaps ping-pong different versions of bills between the two Houses until identical bills are finally passed. 

My expectation is that they will not launch the first ping-pong volley until they have reached a relatively iron-clad agreement that is certain to pass both Houses (60 votes in Senate, in order to hurdle cloture on the motion to proceed to the new, combined bill and to get to final passage; 218 votes in the House to pass the new, combined bill) at first try.  Too many disagreeable “ping-pongs” between the Houses (and intra-Congressional jealousies thereto) could make this health care monstrosity look outright ugly, even to the most ardent health reform supporters left out there. Eventually even the politicians have to read the poll leaves….

2. Finding the “Sweet Spot”—despite all best hopes and every last ounce of arm twisting that President Obama and White House Chief of Staff Rahm Emanuel can possibly exert, finding a bill that can garner both 60 votes in the Senate and 218 votes in the House will be extremely hard to find. 

Though broadly comparable, there are truly significant differences (both large and small) in approach between the House and Senate.  Each House had to bend itself into Gordian policy knots in order to secure partisan passage by a mere hair’s breadth in the first place.  I doubt much that the parallel Gordian knots to pass identical health reform bills in each House are readily available, White House notwithstanding.  I don’t think I would bet against the power of the White House to pull this off; but, I also think there is more than a gambler’s chance to fight back against the inevitability.  And, fight back we will….

3. Conference and the Employer Mandate—pity poor Speaker Pelosi.  She will probably have to give up more ground, swallow more pride and conquer more intra-party resistance than her Senate counterpart, Senate Majority Leader Reid.  But, she will be able to take some pounds of Senate health care hide with her in trade.  That’s where I worry most about the employer mandate and part-time employees, a.k.a. the full employer mandate.

If the House is to give way on the public option and potentially on state-based exchanges rather than their preferred national exchange (though this is also a potential point of Senate compromise), then she will argue that the House employer mandate provision effecting both full and part-time employees will cover more and raise more revenue than the Senate provision.  And, as some sharp-eyed observers have pointed out, the Senate has already adopted the Wyden voucher language that will extend application of the right to opt out of an employer (if their share of premium exceeds 8% of their household income) to part-time workers, if they are already receiving coverage.  This “compromise” may already have been mapped out—and is yet one more reason both to fear and oppose the combined House-Senate bill.  No employer mandate is good but a mandate on part-time employees is the worst.

4. Updated NRF Spreadsheet—before we said goodbye to 2009 and entered 2010, NRF released an updated version of our side-by-side comparison between the respective House and Senate-passed bills.  I shared it then with NRF members and I share it with you now.  I hope that it will be helpful to our greater effort to salvage true health care reform from the irredeemable mess this process has become.

5. NPR Health Reform Interview—follow the link to my interview with NPR’s Julie Rovner (aired this morning) on the process and politics of health care reform.  I think Julie did a good job with my interview—though I’m not sure that I suggested that reform is inevitable.  I still think the wheels could and should come off.  Still, I thought it was an interesting and fun interview that addresses the reform that might have been, had the late Sen. Ted Kennedy (D-MA) still been with us.  Ironically, Sen. Kennedy likely would have worked harder to deliver a more centrist and bipartisan version of reform.

6. Transparently Opaque—it has been fun (yes, we’re back in DC with odd ideas of fun) to watch the squirming in the White House and among the House and Senate majority leadership on whether or not CSPAN cameras should be allowed in to film the majority party-only negotiations.  It seems that despite the full access candidate Obama promised, President Obama will decline to open proceedings.  White House Press Secretary Robert Gibbs rather glibly suggested that if the American people had wanted to watch the process, they could have stayed up late in December to watch the Senate debate and votes.  And to think that they are attempting to thwart CSPAN’s Brian Lamb ... and the American people.  Just wait until the caller on line 2 weighs in.  Follow the link to read CSPAN Chairman and CEO Lamb’s letter.

I would respectfully suggest that the American people understand when they are being set up to be snookered … and generally we get really cranky about that.  It is something to keep in mind when voting in the next and following elections, too.

7. Where I’ve Been—this is my first email blog in quite a while, as the list below demonstrates.  Greater call from the members I represent took priority during mid-to-late December.  But, I can assure you, that I have not yet begun to fight … and blog.  I look forward to continuing our conversation.  Happy New Year!

8. Where I’m Going—NRF’s 99th Annual Convention and Expo in New York is but days away (January 10-13).  I’ll be in New York for the NRF Big Show and our Board meeting but will be mostly accessible by email and cell while away.  I’m sure that we’ll talk a little health care in New York, too….

9. Health Care Blogs—follow the link to my last blog of 2009—entitled Harry’s Gamble: keep it moving before people notice.  That blog has links to the December NRF Key Vote letter on the Senate bill and a related press release.

10. Table of Links—in my continuing effort to surmount the difficulty some of you have had with the hyperlinks in these emails, we are using the following work-around.  I’ll list the key URL links in this table.  You should be able to cut and paste each link into your web browser.  Please note that on some links—particularly documents—it may be a multi-step process involving opening sequential links.

NRF Updated Spreadsheet: http://www.nrf.com/modules.php?name=Documents&op=viewlive&sp_id=4303

NPR Interview: http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=122271679

CSPAN Letter: http://www.c-span.org/pdf/C-SPAN%20Health%20Care%20Letter.pdf

NRF Big Show:  http://events.nrf.com/annual2010/public/enter.aspx

Harry’s Gamble Blog: http://blog.nrf.com/2009/12/18/harrys-gamble-keep-it-moving-before-people-notice

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